We know the past few years have been quite difficult for the camera industry, it’s been an uphill battle after the pandemic, and of course the battle against smartphones.

But it seems the dust has settled from DSLR vs Mirrorless argument. According to the above graphic from CIPA, it’s not even close as MILCs total for 51% of shipments, however more critically they hold 77% of the value (with compacts at 10% and DSLRs at 14%).

Here’s what we’ve learned about the latest data from CIPA:

• Total shipment of digital cameras are about on par with 2021 and 2022.
• Interchangeable lens camera sales have increased significantly from 2021, and slightly from 2022.
• Fixed lens camera sales have decreased from 2021 and 2022, though it should be noted that this may be because of the popularity of the Fuji X100V that released in 2020, with it’s successor planned for early 2024 we may see a spike.

 

 

8 years ago I wrote about mirrorless camera sales statistics and figures in 2015 (posted below), and we’ve certainly learned a lot since then.

• We saw the writing on the wall for Olympus. We noted, “The [Olympus] Imaging Business has recorded losses for five consecutive years.” Though they just sold their imaging business to JIP (Japanese Industrial Partners), I do predict that this will lead to their eventual downfall.
• DSLR camera sales have steadily decreased since 2012. Mirrorless camera have stayed steady, actually impressive considering smartphones now dominate the camera market.
• Who owns the camera market share? Canon still controls camera market share, Nikon is decreasing and Sony is catching up (graph below). Panasonic overtakes Olympus to share the #4 spot with Fuji. Fuji increased market share in 2018, but it subsequently dropped in 2019.

 

Here’s how the camera manufacturers are doing…

• Nikon continues to struggle, posting a loss of $261 million for the first half of FY2021. They forecast an operating loss of $428 million for their imaging division for FY2021.
• For its FY2020 (Jan-Dec), Canon’s Imaging System business reported net sales of ¥712.2B ($6.8B) and an operating profit of ¥71.8B ($690M), down 11.8% and up 49.1% year-over-year (YoY), respectively. A drop in net sales (expected with Covid) , but an increase in net profit.
• Panasonic (Annual Report) – EBITA (Earnings Before Income Taxes) dropped from ~$40 Million USD to $28 Million for the fiscal year ending 3/2020. Expect another drop due to Covid. How the Imaging Division is doing is harder to pinpoint as that division isn’t disclosed, but they were profitable in 2015, I expect them to be doing better today.
• Sony is also difficult to pinpoint sales for the camera division. According to Sony’s latest report Q3 FY2020, it’s broader umbrella, the Electronics Products & Solutions EP&S segment — which includes cameras — and the Imaging & Sensing Solutions has reported an operating income of about $3.5 million.

It’s interesting to look at the state of the industry from years past, read on for my thoughts and insights from then.

Mirrorless Camera Sales Statistics from 2015

Last week we talked about Scott Kelby’s controversial comments on mirrorless cameras and even though he proclaims, “Mirrorless hasn’t caught on in a big way,” the numbers prove otherwise. DPReview published a report that:

• CIPA reports that “Shipments of DSLRs in the twelve months to April 2015 fell 19% by volume and 9% by value, compared to the previous year, while mirrorless grew 36% by volume and 50% by value, over the same period.”
• The NPD Group reports similar numbers, “overall mirrorless camera revenue has grown 16.5% over the past 12 months, with DSLR sales declining approximately 15% over the same period.  During this time, Sony has experienced a robust 66% boost in their company’s mirrorless camera sales, strengthening their dominant position as the #1 overall mirrorless brand, a position they have held for 4 consecutive years.”

Basically, two separate reports show consistency with regards to the decline of DSLR sales and increase in mirrorless sales. And the industry is still in it’s relative infancy, back when I started with the Panasonic GF1 in 2009 there were just a handful of native lenses and now there are 50+. Olympus didn’t bring in the OM-D series until 2012, a series that caters to high-level amateurs and professionals. The first full frame mirrorless camera, the Sony A7, didn’t drop until December 2013.

This is important to note because we’re still in this period of educating the market. Most people believe that bigger cameras, produce better results. And while there might be some truth to that with regards to sensor size, there’s certainly a point to where most consumers wouldn’t be able to tell the difference.

Sales for mirrorless cameras have always been better internationally, many have argued that Americans have different buying habits than international consumers. I particularly like this quote from Michael Reichmann from Luminous Landscape who wrote on the Full Frame Myth:

What I find interesting, is that the latest statistics show that mirrorless systems are becoming very popular in Asia, followed by Europe. North America? Not so much. Indeed Americans and Canadians seem wedded to their large cameras and lenses in the same way as they are to their large vehicles.

Canon and Nikon also have an incredible presence in the United States. From sponsorships to the NFL, or with influential photographers like Scott Kelby. That has a trickle down effect. And when someone asks their photographer friend from camera advice, there’s a good chance he has a Canon or Nikon right now. When you look at shelf space at big box stores like Best Buy, Walmart, Costco, Target, etc., it’s dominated by Canon and Nikon, though Sony is starting to move in. Micro Four Thirds and Fuji tend to be found at specialty stores and online.

But I don’t think that matters. Things are starting to change. We’re moving to a different generation now, a generation that doesn’t need to see and feel a camera, we base our decisions off of our peers and the reviews we read online. We don’t need specialty camera stores. There’s a reason Ritz Camera went bankrupt and boutique camera stores will struggle. Will some survive? Sure, much like some bookstores will survive. The point is, what we’re seeing out of mirrorless, is just the beginning.

Let’s take a look at how some of the biggest mirrorless camera companies are doing starting with the biggest, Sony:

Sony

Source: Consolidated Financial Results for the Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2015.

Sony Imaging Products & Solutions (IP&S) includes compact digital cameras, interchangeable single-lens cameras, video cameras, broadcast and professional-use products. While sales were down, operating income was up:

Seeing a decrease in sales is surprising considering the cameras released in Sony’s Fiscal 2015, which include the Sony A7II, A7S and Sony A6000. And the original A7 and A7R shipped December 2013 (Fiscal 2014), which means some sales should have trickled to Fiscal 2015. It will be interesting to see what happens in Fiscal 2016, considering the release of the popular A7R II and A7S II.

However, Sony did see a significant increase in operating income. The “increase was mainly due to reduction in selling, general and administrative expenses, the favorable impact of foreign exchange rates and the above-mentioned improvement in product mix reflecting a shift to high value-added models, partially offset by the above-mentioned decrease in sales of digital cameras and video cameras.

And it’s also important to note that Sony dominates the sensor market, mostly due to the fact that the iPhone uses their sensor.

Olympus

Source: Olympus Annual Report 2015, for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2015.

In their annual report, Olympus noted that they are #2 in Japan with 25% of the mirrorless camera market, just behind Sony. However, sales have been down for five years in a row:

2014: 96,111 Millions of Yen

2015: 83,825 (12.8%) Decrease

They explain their loss:

The Imaging Business has recorded losses for five consecutive years, and we are still in the process of fundamentally resolving issues facing this business. There are clearly still areas requiring improvement, and we are restructuring this business to address these areas. Specific reforms planned include furthering the shift toward mirrorless cameras to boost profitability…. In fiscal 2016, rather than pursue sales expansion, we will cut back on fixed costs in order to realize a departure from the current state of unprofitability.

Though a decrease in sales might look discerning, remember that Olympus didn’t introduce the OM-D line until 2012, and the only notable release from Olympus this fiscal year was the E-PL7. But it seems things are starting to turn around with their restructuring as Olympus did just post a quarterly profit thanks to the OM-D E-M5 II, and along with the E-M10 II we should continue to see a profit throughout 2016. We’re still waiting for the E-M1 II, hopefully we’ll see that refresh sooner than later…

Panasonic

Source: Panasonic Annual Report 2015, for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2015.

Narrowing imaging sales for Panasonic is a bit more difficult as they cover it under a broader umbrella, “AVC Networks.” The four core businesses that make up this division are; Visual & Imaging Business, Mobility Business, Communications Business and Vertical Solutions Business. However, Panasonic did note that the restructuring of the digital cameras “returned to the black” (ie. turned a profit.). Sales were up slightly for 2015:

2014: 1152.5 billions of yen

2015: 1154.3

In 2015, the Visual & Imaging Business segment accounted for 267.3 billion yen. AVC Networks account for 14% of Panasonic’s overall fiscal sales in 2015.

A minor increase is no surprise here as the Panasonic GH4 and GX7 were announced prior to the beginning of the 2015 fiscal year, and the new G7 and GX8 were released after. The most notable release within the 2015 fiscal year was the Panasonic GM5. While we likely won’t see a Panasonic GH5 in the 2016 fiscal year (ending 3/2016), we should still see an increase in sales thanks to the G7 and GX8.

Fuji

Source: Fujifilm 2015 Annual Report for the Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2015.

Fuji saw a great increase in profit in Fiscal 2015 and they plan to continue that trend to 2017. Here is there page on Imaging Solutions from their Annual Report:

Fiscal 2015 was propelled by the release of their flagship camera, the XT-1. Thought they’re not quite selling the volume compared to the aforementioned competitors, they are profitable which is very important in this tough industry.

Mirrorless vs DSLR Camera Sales through June 2014

With data provided by CIPA (Camera and Imaging Products Association), Vitaly over at Personal View produced a few graphs that illustrates Mirrorless vs DSLR Sales through June 2014 (see below). Here’s a few takeaways from the graphics:

• Americans Haven’t Embraced Mirrorless Cameras – This has been true since the launch of the Micro Four Thirds system, while sales have steadily increased across Asia, Americans haven’t quite latched on to the trend… or it could be a lack of marketing and branding. You can’t walk into a Best Buy and purchase a Panasonic m43 camera, and you’d even be lucky to find an Olympus camera. As a matter of fact, if the data could further differentiate m43 vs Sony’s APS-C mirrorless system (NEX), m43 would likely be on the tail end of that graph as well. Because the NEX (in Las Vegas at least) tends to occupy the prime end cap space at Best Buy, and even Costco.
• Sales vs Cameras Shipped – Note that the graphics illustrate cameras shipped, not sales. In my opinion, this metric is a little more important than sales as it gives us an idea of how many cameras have been purchased versus how much money was spent.
• DSLR’s Down, Mirrorless Neutral – With the exception of holiday months, mirrorless camera sales have been steady, whereas interest in DSLR’s is slipping. What does this mean? Most likely, people are happy with their smartphone cameras, and feel that need for a standalone camera is not necessary.  
  
• Lack of Innovation? – I think most m43 owners could agree that the Panasonic GF1 was a game changer. It was the first real compact alternative to a DSLR and it took the photography world by storm. Since then we could argue that the GX1 was a vast improvement, then the GX7, or the OM-D series… but were they game changers? We could debate about the Sony A7R, but at $2000 that doesn’t attract the mass market. The GM1 was amazing in it’s own right, but it wasn’t a game changer. You still couldn’t fit it in your pants pocket (with a lens) like you could a phone.

The Game Changer for Mirrorless Cameras

Let’s reword that, “The Game Changer for Mirrorless Cameras for the Mass Market.” The GX7, OM-D, the higher end NEX cameras are all fantastic cameras. Don’t get me wrong. But it isn’t enough to sway the public… at least Americans.

What is? An interchangeable lens smartphone. I know. I’m crazy. A twit. A wishful thinker. Perhaps, but check this out:

The Google Images comparison for the GM1 vs the iPhone. The GM1 just so happens to be smaller in length. It’s thin, just not quite thin enough. But we’re close. Olympus has a razor thin 15mm f/8.0 Lens Cap LENS. While not as thin, Panasonic has pancake options, including the famed 20mm f/1.7 and 14mm f/2.5.

And let’s not forget that we’re making a size comparison to the iPhone 5… a small smartphone compared to it’s Android competitors.

Nokia’s Pureview line is relatively big for a smartphone.

Samsung’s Android powered Galaxy Camera 2, although not a smartphone, is likely heading towards that direction.  

Call me crazy. I’m not an engineer at Panasonic or Olympus. But I think we’re close. Perhaps that’s why Panasonic just revived their Eluga smartphone line? It doesn’t have anything a modern smartphone doesn’t have, but it could be a test… a sign of things to come.

What do you think?  Let me know in the comments below!

ALSO SEE: With data also provided by CIPA, LensVid produced a graphic that detailed the camera industry from 2009-2013.